Bayesian modeling and mechanical simulations for fragility curve estimation of the mooring system of marine hydrokinetic devices

Abstract

This work uses Bayesian modeling and mechanical model simulations through the Ansys-AQWA software to construct fragility curve estimates for marine hydrokinetic devices, more specifically, their mooring system. The fragility curves proposed here associate wind speed levels with the risk of damage to the equipment and could be used to better understand the susceptibility of these devices to damage from hurricanes. Our proposed modeling framework uses acoustic Doppler current profiler measurements from a site located off the North Carolina coast and the RM4 conversion device from the Sandia National Laboratory. By evaluating different scenarios with and without dynamic tension in mooring lines due to changes in current velocities caused by extreme wind speeds, our results indicate that the risks of damage may be significant depending not only on the average current velocity but also on the velocity variation.