El recuerdo de voto en España un análisis del período 1996-2008

Abstract

In this paper we examine the evolution of the vote recall along three terms using the Barometer's data provided by the Center for Sociological Research (CIS, Spain). As a first step, we identify the potencial sources of error that could bias recall. Specifically, we will pay attention to the influence of mistakes in the retrieval process, in the social desirability bias and in the impact of the measurement tool. Secondly, we will show the main biases in Spain using aggregate data, showing that the passing of time introduces successive errors in voters' statements. Specifically, part of the interviewees tend to reconstruct their vote recall upon their present vote intention. Finally, we will see the possible influence of short-term factors and the impact of the fieldwork. Our goal is to help researchers who use the vote recall to rethink the biases.