Methodology to forecast road surface temperature with principal components analysis and partial least-square regression: Application to an urban configuration

Abstract

A forecast road surface temperature (RST) helps winter services to optimize costs and to reduce the deicers environmental impacts. Data from road weather information systems (RWIS) and thermal mapping are considered inputs for forecasting physical numerical models. Statistical models include many meteorological parameters along routes and provide a spatial approach. It is based on typical combinations resulting from treatment and analysis of a database from measurements of road weather stations or thermal mapping, easy, reliable, and cost effective to monitor RST, and many meteorological parameters. A forecast dedicated to road networks should combine both spatial and time forecasts needs. This study contributed to building a reliable RST forecast based on principal component analysis (PCA) and partial least-square (PLS) regression. An urban stretch with various weather conditions and seasons was monitored over several months to generate an appropriate number of samples. The study first consisted of the identification of its optimum number to establish a reliable forecast. A second aspect is aimed at comparing RST forecasts from PLS model to measurements. Comparison indicated a forecast over an urban stretch with up to 94% of values within ±1°C and over 80% within ±3°C.