Detecting and Quantifying Insider Trading and Stock Manipulation in Asian Markets

Abstract

This paper focuses on insider trading, where the perpetrators exploit market sensitive information to earn profits or avoid losses. The paper's objectives are as follows. First, we seek to examine whether we can detect possible insider trading and stock manipulation and react in almost real time, even though insider trading activity is intended to be evasive. Second, we also estimate the extent of illicit profits (or loss avoidance) that might have been earned. Finally, we analyze, if detection is possible, the appropriate response for regulators and other market participants. We do not restrict our study to cases where corporate events have materialized, as we hope to capture insider trading surrounding market rumors and failed corporate events. Because insider trading is executed with the aim of being evasive and undetected, it is impossible to conclude with certainty. Nevertheless, using a hypothesized model based on how insiders and stock manipulators trade, we detect price patterns that are consistent with their objective to maximize profits and at the same time be evasive.