Leader Tenure, Genocide, and Politicide During Civil War

Abstract

Why do some governments engage in genocide or politicide during civil war while others do not? I argue that leader tenure influences bargaining possibilities between the regime and rebels. Rebels face less uncertainty about a longer-tenured leader’s willingness to commit to concessions to end the conflict with terms that better the rebels’ position. This narrows the longer-tenured leader’s ability to credibly offer the rebels concessions. Facing a constrained bargaining environment, longer-tenured leaders become more likely to turn to atrocity in an effort to fully defeat the opposition group and its supporters. Statistical analysis of all genocide and politicide in civil war since 1946 supports this claim. Evidence from Milosevic’s atrocities in Kosovo help illustrate the mechanisms.