Sensitivity of storm waves in Montevideo (Uruguay) to a hypothetical climate change

Abstract

Outputs from the application of a simple storm wave generation model using real wind data for several years in the 1980s are compared with simulations representing conditions of a 10% higher wind strength and aim sea-level rise. A numeric wave propagation model (combined refraction-diffraction) is also used to calculate propagation coefficients for waves approaching the Montevideo coast under 2 different scenarios. The first one (baseline scenario) describes the current situation, while the second one reflects a 1 m rise in sea level. The analysis of propagation coefficients is carried out for all directions of the wind waves approaching the Montevideo shoreline, using the most representative wave period and height in each case. As a general conclusion it is observed that, under such a climate change scenario, storm waves would increase in height, while their angle of incidence would remain unchanged.