Modelación hidrológica e hidráulica de un río intraurbano en una cuenca transfronteriza con el apoyo del análisis regional de frecuencias

Abstract

Floods are among the most recurrent and devastating natural hazards, affecting human lives and causing severe economic damage worldwide. Arid and semi-arid regions are particularly vulnerable to intense storm events over short time periods resulting in flashfloods. These regions represent approximately 30% of the world's area and are inhabited by approximately 20% of the total population. The main objective of this study was to estimate the design storm for return periods of 20, 50, 100, and 500 years, in the semi-arid region of the New River sub-basin, in order to determine the flood areas in the main channel. In this study, an integrated model approach was proposed, consisting of developing a hydrological model for different return periods and performing a regional frequency analysis (RFA) using the L-Moments approach, in order to generate the input for hydrological and hydraulic modeling using the programs HEC-HMS and HEC-RAS. The flood areas obtained ranged from 190.55 ha to 237.83 ha, and depths from 0.10 to 6 meters, which pose a risk to the urban infrastructure of the city. The outcome of this research provides information that can be used by urban planners to reduce flood risks.