Urban Institutional Vulnerabilities: A Multi-Source SETS Framework Analysis of Flood Disaster Management Breakdown in Valencia’s Urban–Ecological Interface

Abstract

In this research, an innovative, integrative method is applied, which not only links media discourse and statutory planning documents but also involves both quantitative and qualitative analysis. By going beyond the traditional extreme of either policy review or text-based SETS frameworks, this study becomes the pioneer of a dual-coded, matrix-driven approach, which is capable of measuring policy–implementation gaps and empirically revealing the impact of media framing on disaster management outcomes. The 29 October 2024 Valencia flood, which claimed over 229 lives, highlights critical shortcomings in the region’s flood management policies. This study evaluates media and institutional sources to examine how public discourse aligns with post-flood management strategies. It focuses on Valencia’s statutory flood management plan, the “Pla d’acció territorial de caràcter sectorial sobre prevenció del risc d’inundació a la Comunitat Valenciana” (“Regional Action Plan for Flood Risk Prevention,” PATRICOVA) and its limited integration with the Socio–Ecological–Technological Systems (SETS) framework, which we identify as a central weakness. By analyzing Spanish media coverage, particularly from sources such as El País, ABC, and La Vanguardia, alongside government policy documents, the study reveals a gap between theoretical flood risk planning and practical disaster response. Our keyword-based text mining of leading newspapers highlights the neglect of social, ecological, and technological interactions. While PATRICOVA emphasizes nature protection and technological infrastructure, it overlooks critical societal dimensions and climate adaptation scenarios. Media analysis reveals significant failures at the SETS interfaces, especially in early warning systems, intergovernmental coordination, and community preparedness.