Multi-Stakeholder Priorities for Modular Construction Adoption Under Uncertainty: An Analytic Hierarchy Process and Monte Carlo Analysis in Aceh, Indonesia

Abstract

In disaster-prone regions facing chronic housing shortages and growing sustainability demands, modern construction methods are essential to achieving resilience, affordability, and rapid delivery. Modular construction, one of the core components of Modern Methods of Construction (MMC), offers significant potential but remains underutilized in developing contexts due to regulatory, managerial, and technical constraints. This study investigates the multi-stakeholder priorities influencing the adoption of modular construction in Indonesia, with a particular focus on Aceh, a province frequently affected by natural disasters. An integrated Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Monte Carlo simulation framework was applied to evaluate six main criteria and sixteen sub-criteria, drawing on expert input from five stakeholder groups: academics, planners, architects, consultants, and contractors. The results indicate that Managerial and Planning (0.181), Quality, Safety and Regulation (0.178), and Human Resources and Knowledge (0.174) are the most influential criteria. Among five modular alternatives, Volumetric Modular ranked highest (0.243) for its rapid deployment and disaster-resilient characteristics, followed by Panelized Modular (0.203). Monte Carlo sensitivity testing validated the robustness of these results under uncertainty. This research represents one of the first probabilistic, multi-stakeholder assessments of modular adoption in a developing-country disaster context. Policy implications highlight the urgent need for regulatory reform to standardize modular practices and workforce training programs to strengthen technical capacity, thereby accelerating resilient housing delivery in Aceh and similar regions.