What drives population ageing? A cointegration analysis

Abstract

While “classical” demography imputes population ageing to low fertility, a recent “revisionist” line of thinking signals the emergence of ageing “from the top” (i.e., due to low mortality), starting slightly after World War II. We join this debate proving that, in the long run, mortality affects the population age structure, and therefore also ageing, more than customarily believed. With data taken from the Human Mortality Database on eight populations located in Europe, North America and Oceania, and for as far back as possible (up to 1820 in some cases), and applying cointegration analysis, we show that most of the historical change observed in the proportions of young, adult and old people in these countries can be derived solely from changes in survival, ignoring fertility and migration.