Global burden of pediatric fracture (1992-2021) and projections of future disease burden trends

Abstract

Objective: Pediatric fracture are a significant public health concern, contributing to both immediate health impacts and long-term disability. This study aims to quantify the burden of pediatric fracture over a 30-year period (1992-2021) and provide forecasts for future disease burden. Methods: Comprehensive data on pediatric fracture from 1992 to 2021 were obtained from the Global Burden of Disease study. This dataset includes information on the incidence of pediatric fracture, disaggregated by gender. The Joinpoint regression model was used to identify turning points in epidemiological trends, while decomposition analysis helped identify the factors driving these trends. Health inequalities related to pediatric fracture were assessed using the Slope Index and Concentration Index. To forecast future incidence rates, the Norpred and BAPC models were applied. Results: The global ASIR of pediatric fracture was 2225.38 in 1992 and 1531.44 in 2021. The total number of pediatric fracture globally was 39,436,228 in 1992 and 31,033,294 in 2021. The results of the Joinpoint regression indicate a declining trend in the incidence of pediatric fracture globally and in all SDI regions, for both male and female children. Based on the Nordpred and BAPC model, the predicted age-standardized incidence rate for pediatric fracture by 2046 is 1347.61-1349.43. The total number of pediatric fracture predicted by 2046 is 25,048,299-25,123,204. Conclusion: Over the past three decades, the global incidence of pediatric fractures has declined. However, population growth has sustained a substantial disease burden, underscoring the necessity for effective prevention and management strategies.