A SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODEL FOR THE WATER-ENERGY-FOOD-LAND USE-CLIMATE NEXUS: THE GREEK CASE STUDY

Abstract

Complexity science methods applied for policies provide a means of exploring the effects of various types of spatial and temporal drivers and constraints on the behavior of society and helps scenario-forming and the development of sound policies through stakeholder consultations. In the context of policy-making following a five-dimensional Nexus approach that includes Water, Energy, Food, Land Use and Climate, System Dynamics Modelling is used towards a holistic approach, since it presents various advantages, such as integrating different model outputs and handling system complexity via a building-block approach. The objective of this article is to present the System Dynamics Model (SDM) that establishes and quantifies the interlinkages among all five Nexus dimensions for the national case study of Greece. The methodology of data mapping and linking Nexus components in a complex system is presented, while outputs from thematic models are integrated producing forecasted trends up to 2050 for various climatic scenarios.