Risk Transmission and Resilience of China’s Corn Import Trade Network

Abstract

The global corn trade is an important pillar of the agricultural economy, but its supply chain is vulnerable to geopolitical conflicts, climate change, and market volatility. As one of the major importers of corn in the world, China has long relied on the United States and Ukraine, and the risk of import concentration is prominent. The complicated international situation intensifies the external uncertainty of China’s import supply chain. This study utilized bilateral trade data from 2010 to 2023 and employed advanced methodologies including complex network modeling, network index quantification, and simulation analysis to assess the impacts of external risks from major trading partners on China’s corn import system and trace risk transmission pathways. The research objectives focused on examining the structural evolution of China’s corn import trade network over the past decade, evaluating its resilience against external shocks, and identifying the critical roles played by key node countries in risk propagation mechanisms. The results showed that the resilience of China’s corn import trade network had been enhanced in recent years and that the complementarity of planting cycles in the Northern and Southern Hemispheres and the adjustment of trade structure caused by the Russia–Ukraine conflict had improved its risk resistance. The United States, France, Romania, and Turkey were key intermediate nodes in risk transmission due to their geographical advantages and trade hub statuses. The risk transmission path presented regional heterogeneity. China should strengthen trade with countries in the Southern Hemisphere and built a more stable import system by taking advantage of complementary resource endowments and growth periods. Bilateral agreements with transit countries could ensure security of supply. Reserve centers and modern logistics infrastructure should be built in key areas. In addition, platforms such as the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership could promote harmonized standards and digital support for corn trade, and regional financial instruments and supply chain optimization could have balanced risks.