Does confidence enhance performance? Causal evidence from the field

Abstract

We analyze the effect of self-confidence on performance using data from top-level professional biathlon competitions. We exploit this dual nature of the sport by using snow conditions affecting performance on the skiing track as exogenous variation in confidence on the shooting range. Using round-level data on 254 competitions between 2009 and 2013, we show that the less confident athletes are, the worse their performance is on the shooting range. Effects for women are estimated to be generally smaller and less robust. We show that our results are not driven by fatigue or exhaustion specific to the competitive setting we analyze.