Association of Cumulative Systolic Blood Pressure With Long-Term Risk of Cardiovascular Disease and Healthy Longevity

Abstract

Hypertension is a major risk factor for cardiovascular disease (CVD), but previous studies have mostly been limited to a single exam, a single cohort, a short follow-up period, or a limited number of outcomes. This study aimed to assess the association of 10-year cumulative systolic blood pressure (BP) in middle age with long-term risk of any CVD, coronary heart disease, stroke, heart failure, all-cause mortality, and healthy longevity. Individuals (11 502) from 5 racially/ethnically diverse US community-based cohorts were included in this study once they met all the inclusion criteria: ≥10 year of observation in the included cohort, aged 45 to 60 years, free of CVD, and had ≥3 visits with BP exams over the preceding 10 years. For each participant, systolic BP level was predicted for each year of the 10-year prior inclusion, based on the available exams (median of 4.0; spread over, 9.1 [range, 7.2–10] years). Lower 10-year cumulative systolic BP was associated with 4.1 years longer survival and 5.4 years later onset of CVD, resulting in living longer life with a shorter period with morbidity. Models adjusted for sociodemographic characteristics, cardiovascular risk factors, and index systolic BP demonstrated associations of 10-year cumulative systolic BP (per 130 mm Hg×year change, the threshold for stage-1 hypertension) with CVD (hazard ratio [HR], 1.28 [95% CI, 1.20–1.36]), coronary heart disease (HR, 1.29 [95% CI, 1.19–1.40]), stroke (HR, 1.33 [95% CI, 1.20–1.47]), heart failure (HR, 1.12 [95% CI, 1.02–1.23]), and all-cause mortality (HR, 1.21 [95% CI, 1.14–1.29]). These findings emphasize the importance of 10-year cumulative systolic BP as a risk factor to CVD, above and beyond current systolic BP.