Mapping landslide susceptibility using machine learning algorithms and GIS: A case study in Shexian county, Anhui province, China

Abstract

In this study, Logistics Regression (LR), Support Vector Machine (SVM), Random Forest (RF), Gradient Boosting Machine (GBM), and Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) machine learning algorithms are combined with GIS techniques to map landslide susceptibility in Shexian County, China. By using satellite images and various topographic and geological maps, 16 landslide susceptibility factor maps of Shexian County were initially constructed. In total, 502 landslide and random safety points were then using the “Extract Multivalues To Points” tool in ArcGIS, parameters for the 16 factors were extracted and imported into models for the five algorithms, of which 70% of samples were used for training and 30% of samples were used for verification, which makes sense for date symmetry. The Shexian grid was converted into 260130 vector points and imported into the five models, and the natural breakpoint method was used to divide the grid into four levels: low, moderate, high, and very high. Finally, by using column results gained using Area Under Curve (AUC) analysis and a grid chart, susceptibility results for mapping landslide prediction in Shexian County was compared using the five methods. Results indicate that the ratio of landslide points of high or very high levels from LR, SVM, RF, GBM, and MLP was 1.52, 1.77, 1.95, 1.83, and 1.64, and the ratio of very high landslide points to grade area was 1.92, 2.20, 2.98, 2.62, and 2.14, respectively. The success rate of training samples for the five methods was 0.781, 0.824, 0.853, 0.828, and 0.811, and prediction accuracy was 0.772, 0.803, 0.821, 0.815, and 0.803, respectively; the order of accuracy of the five algorithms was RF > SVM > MLP > GBM > LR. Our results indicate that the five machine learning algorithms have good effect on landslide susceptibility evaluation in Shexian area, with Random Forest having the best effect.