Identifying key processes and sectors in the interaction between climate and socio-economic systems: a review toward integrating Earth–human systems

Abstract

For the purpose of identifying the key processes and sectors involved in the interaction between Earth and socio-economic systems, we review existing studies on those processes/sectors through which the climate impacts socio-economic systems, which then in turn affect the climate. For each process/sector, we review the direct physical and ecological impacts and, if available, the impact on the economy and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Based on this review, land sector is identified as the process with the most significant impact on GHG emissions, while labor productivity has the largest impact on the gross domestic product (GDP). On the other hand, the energy sector, due to the increase in the demand for cooling, will have increased GHG emissions. Water resources, sea level rise, natural disasters, ecosystem services, and diseases also show the potential to have a significant influence on GHG emissions and GDP, although for most of these, a large effect was reported only by a limited number of studies. As a result, more studies are required to verify their influence in terms of feedbacks to the climate. In addition, although the economic damage arising from migration and conflict is uncertain, they should be treated as potentially damaging processes. [Figure not available: see fulltext.]