Analysis and Comparison of Wind Potential by Estimating the Weibull Distribution Function: Application to Wind Farm in the Northern of Morocco

Abstract

To assess wind energy potential in Northern Morocco, a validated approach based on the two-parameter Weibull distribution is employed, utilizing wind direction and speed data. Over a span of two years, from January 2019 to December 2020, measurements taken every 10 min are collected. This study is centered on a comprehensive and statistical analysis of electricity generated from a wind farm situated in the Tetouan region in Morocco. This wind farm boasts a total capacity of 120 MW, comprising 40 wind turbines, each with a 3 MW capacity, strategically positioned along the ridge. Among the available techniques for estimating Weibull distribution parameters, the maximum likelihood method (MLM) is chosen due to its statistical robustness and exceptional precision, especially for large sample sizes. Throughout the two-year period, monthly wind speed measurements fluctuated between 2.1 m/s and 9.1 m/s. To enhance accuracy, monthly and annual theoretical power densities were recalculated using the Weibull parameters and compared with actual measurements. This has enabled the detection of production disparities and the mitigation of forecast errors throughout the entire wind farm. In conclusion, over the two-year production period, turbines WTG 30 and WTG 33 displayed the most significant shortcomings, primarily attributed to orientation issues within the “Yaw system”.