Human-induced seismicity and large-scale hydrocarbon production in the USA and Canada

Abstract

We compare current and historic seismicity rates in six States in the USA and three Provinces in Canada to past and present hydrocarbon production. All States/Provinces are major hydrocarbon producers. Our analyses span three to five decades depending on data availability. Total hydrocarbon production has significantly increased in the past few years in these regions. Increased production in most areas is due to large-scale hydraulic fracturing and thus underground fluid injection. Furthermore, increased hydrocarbon production generally leads to increased water production, which must be treated, recycled, or disposed of underground. Increased fluid injection enhances the likelihood of fault reactivation, which may affect current seismicity rates. We find that increased seismicity in Oklahoma, likely due to salt-water disposal, has an 85% correlation with oil production. Yet, the other areas do not display State/Province-wide correlations between increased seismicity and production, despite 8–16-fold increases in production in some States. However, in various cases, seismicity has locally increased. Multiple factors play an important role in determining the likelihood of anthropogenic activities influencing earthquake rates, including (i) the near-surface tectonic background rate, (ii) the existence of critically stressed and favorably oriented faults, which must be hydraulically connected to injection wells, (iii) the orientation and magnitudes of the in situ stress field, combined with (iv) the injection volumes and implemented depletion strategies. A comparison with the seismic hazard maps for the USA and Canada shows that induced seismicity is less likely in areas with a lower hazard. The opposite, however, is not necessarily true.