Online Video Popularity Regression Prediction Model with Multichannel Dynamic Scheduling Based on User Behavior

Abstract

Popularity prediction of online video is widely used in many different scenarios. It can not only help video service providers to schedule video web sites, but also bring considerable profits on investment for both providers and advertisers if popularity of online video is predicted accurately. However, online video popularity prediction still cannot have a satisfactory result, due to the complexity of many crucial factors especially of video distribution network. In this article, we extract seven factors from huge amounts of data about user behavior, establishing a new multiple linear regression model to initially predict online video popularity. After that, a multichannel video popularity dynamic scheduling model is proposed to schedule videos on which channel and what time to be broadcast, according to its popularity predicted by multiple linear regression model, ensuring that maximum the sum value of online video popularity of each channel. Experimental results on dataset obtained from Sohu Video, a video service provider in China, and real-world video flow in Sohu Video demonstrate that the proposed model is robust and has promising performance in predicting online video popularity, which is helpful for video service providers to schedule videos on web sites effectively in the future.