Malaria incidence in Nairobi, Kenya and dekadal trends in NDVI and climatic variables

Abstract

The primary objective of this research was to determine if the remotely-sensed metric, Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and ground-collected dekadal climatological variables were useful predictors of future malaria outbreaks in an epidemic-prone area of Nairobi, Kenya. Data collected consisted of 36 dekadal (10-day) periods for the variables rainfall, temperature and NDVI along with yearly documented malaria admissions in 2003 for Nairobi, Kenya. Linear regression models were built for malaria cases reported in Nairobi, Kenya, as the dependent variable and various time-based groupings of temperature, rainfall and NDVI data from the dekads in both the current and the previous month as the independent variables. Data from 2003 show that malaria incidence in any given month is best predicted (R2 = 0.881, p < 0.001) by the average NDVI for the 30 days including the final two dekads of the previous month and first dekad of the current month, and by the average rainfall for the 30 days including the three dekads of rainfall data from the prior month. Forecasting an outbreak in an epidemic zone would allow public health entities to plan for and disseminate resources to the general public such as antimalarials and insecticide impregnated bed nets. In addition, vector control measures could be implemented to slow the rate of transmission in the impacted population.