Impact of climate change on crop yield of corn (Zea mays L.) in the Canton Junín, Province of Manabí

Abstract

Agriculture provides a significant fraction of the food consumed worldwide. In Ecuador, a large area is dedicated to the production of corn (Zea mays L.). However, the progress of current projections in agriculture may be directly affected by climate change and its effects. The present study aims to evaluate the impact of climate change on maize (Zea mays L.) crop yields over the last 10 years (2010 - 2020) and to predict future yields under different climate change scenarios proposed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Variables such as rainfall, temperatures, heliophany, evapotranspiration, solar radiation, and humidity recorded in the last 10 years on a monthly and annual basis were considered. The data were obtained from two weather stations, and their impact on the yield of this crop on different farms was analyzed by linear regression. The ArcGis program was used to predict the 10-year corn production (yield) under the different IPCC scenarios, through the analysis of the Maxent model for Zea mays. The current situation of maize (Zea mays L.) in the Junín canton is affected by considerable climatic variations and other serious effects that are detrimental to the local agricultural system.