How long do offenders escape arrest? Using DNA traces to analyse when serial offenders are caught

Abstract

Why is it that some serial offenders are arrested quickly and others only after a long period, or never at all? What characterises offenders who continue to escape arrest despite their continued involvement in crime? To be able to answer these questions, arrested (identified) offenders must be compared with never arrested (unidentified) offenders. In this paper, data from the Dutch DNA database are used to assess which characteristics of the criminal behaviour of unidentified offenders influence the probability that they will subsequently be arrested. DNA data offer a unique opportunity to compare crime series of identified offenders with crime series of yet unidentified offenders. Using the Cox proportional hazards model, we tested whether the number of crimes committed, offence specialization, and offence seriousness affect the probability of arrest of serial offenders. Results showed that as an offender commits more crimes, the probability that he will be arrested increases and that offence specialization decreases the probability of arrest. Another conclusion drawn is that DNA traces offer unique opportunities for criminological research. We discuss the limitations of this new data source and make suggestions for future research using DNA traces and for future research that might improve the current study. © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.