Why we don't have to believe without doubting in the “Second Demographic Transition” - some agnostic comments.

Abstract

Every schoolboy used to knowabout the problem with the Holy Roman Empire: it was neither “Holy”, nor “Roman” nor even an “Empire”. Similar limitations may inhibit our wholehearted acceptance of the “Second Demographic Transition” concept in demography. In some important respects, this concept is not so much “second” but “secondary”, is not really “demographic” and cannot properly be described as a “transition” at all. Furthermore, while excellent in parts, the concept may be criticised as being in someways statistically incoherent, to rest on an underlying the- ory that is by no means free of defects, and also to be over-stretched unreasonably to cover some phenomena better accounted for by other viewpoints.