Sustainable Mobility and Emissions: The Role of the Sale Structure in the Automotive Energy Transition

Abstract

The aim of this article is to assess the sale structure impact of selected, popular brands of passenger vehicles on total CO2 emissions in the context of the energy transition in the transport sector. A detailed analysis was conducted of the projected sales of gasoline-, diesel-, hybrid-, as well as electric-powered vehicles over the years 2021–2028. Based on the available empirical data, a mathematical model was developed to estimate emissions over the entire life cycle of vehicles, taking into account the unit carbon footprint of each type of drivetrain and the expected number of vehicles sold. The results indicate a gradual decline in total CO2 emissions during the analyzed period, mainly due to the increasing share of alternative drivetrains. Despite the growth in electric vehicle sales, their impact on emission reductions remains limited due to the long lifespan of conventional vehicle fleets. The article concludes with a proposal to expand the LCA model to include regional, energy, and recycling components, which could help in formulating more effective climate policies.