Liquefaction hazard assessment and ground failure probability analysis in the Kathmandu Valley of Nepal

Abstract

During the 2015 Gorkha Earthquake (Mw7.8), extensive soil liquefaction was observed across the Kathmandu Valley. As a densely populated urban settlement, the assessment of liquefaction potential of the valley is crucial especially for ensuring the safety of engineering structures. In this study, we use borehole data including SPT-N values of 410 locations in the valley to assess the susceptibility, hazard, and risk of liquefaction of the valley soil considering three likely-to-recur scenario earthquakes. Some of the existing and frequently used analysis and computation methods are employed for the assessments, and the obtained results are presented in the form of liquefaction hazard maps indicating factor of safety, liquefaction potential index, and probability of ground failure (PG). The assessment results reveal that most of the areas have medium to very high liquefaction susceptibility, and that the central and southern parts of the valley are more susceptible to liquefaction and are at greater risk of liquefaction damage than the northern parts. The assessment outcomes are validated with the field manifestations during the 2015 Gorkha Earthquake. The target SPT-N values (Nimproved) at potentially liquefiable areas are determined using back analysis to ascertain no liquefaction during the aforesaid three scenario earthquakes.