Operational sea level forecasting in Estonia; pp. 301–331

Abstract

The operational sea level forecasting system in Estonia, based on the HIROMB model forecasts and on 11 online sea level observation stations, is described and validated. The system is operational since 08.08.2005. Statistical analysis for the period 2006–2008 data is performed to investigate the properties of low-frequency sea level error and error estimation of high sea level events. A 7-day backwards moving average filter is the most appropriate for Estonian waters to correct the raw sea level forecast. For the time period 2006–2008 the forecast error of critically high sea level events is ± 25 cm within ± 3 h between the observed and forecasted maxima. Taylor skill assessment procedures are applied to the data, covering the period 2009–2011. The data is divided into three forecast sub-ranges (low, medium and high sea level), to investigate the possibilities of the online error estimation. Smaller errors are present for medium and low sub-range and larger errors for the high sub-range. The necessities for further development are outlined.