Relationship of Macroeconomics Variables in Indonesia Using Vector Error Correction Model

Abstract

This study aims to analyze the relationship between macroeconomic variables in Indonesia, namely GDP with money supply, exchange rate of rupiah to US Dollar, exports, imports and interest rates. The background problem is to analyze the best method to influence government targets or policies on economic growth by studying the relationship of macroeconomic variables. Previous studies analyzing the relationship between macroeconomic variables in Indonesia have used multiple linear regression analysis. Using VECM analysis we can find out the short-term and long-term effects on the relationship between macroeconomic variables in Indonesia. The analysis used in this study is the Vector Error Correction Model with Maximum Likelihood estimation. Based on the result, the cointegration test found that there is a long-term relationship. Based on the VECM model (3), in the short term there is a relationship between macroeconomic variables and in the long run there is a long-term causality relationship in the GDP and export models. It is expected that the Government and the Central Bank will work together cooperatively in making policies to keep control of the money supply, exchange rate of rupiah to US Dollar and interest rates to enable to stimulate the economy.