Analysis of bus trip characteristic analysis and demand forecasting based on GA-NARX neural network model

Abstract

Passenger flow is the basis for bus operation scheduling. Huge advances are being made to develop smart city traffic using big data. Intelligent bus systems based on bus integrated circuit (IC) card systems are constantly developing and improving. Compared with traditional manual survey data, bus IC data is low-cost, real-time and accurate with a simple acquisition method. Bus IC data is an important basic data resource and data mining of bus IC cards can obtain dynamic information about urban bus passenger flow and help improve urban bus planning and service levels. The crucial factor in determining whether this data can be reasonably applied to the optimization of urban bus systems is whether spatial and temporal characteristics of the passenger bus trip can be obtained through bus IC data mining, and there is much current research interest into this topic. In this paper, the characteristics of one-day passenger flow and time-division passenger flow are analyzed based on data obtained from swiping IC cards for one week on a bus in Qingdao. Then, based on a GA-NARX neural network model, the passenger flow is forecast using the IC card swipe data for five working days of Qingdao No. 1 bus (using ten minutes as the time interval). The forecasting results show that the passenger flow can be successfully predicted using this method and thus this method can be used for short-term passenger flow forecasting using bus IC cards.