Spatiotemporal Variations and Driving Factors of Water Availability in the Arid and Semiarid Regions of Northern China

Abstract

It is anticipated that global warming will modify precipitation and evapotranspiration patterns, consequently affecting water availability. Changes in water availability pose challenges to freshwater supply, food security, and ecosystem sustainability. However, the variations and driving mechanisms of water availability in the arid and semiarid regions of Northern China remain unclear. This study evaluates the accuracy of three evapotranspiration products and analyzes the changes in water availability in the arid and semiarid regions of Northern China over the past 39 years (1982–2020) along with their driving factors. The results indicate that during this period, precipitation increased at a rate of 7.5 mm/decade, while evapotranspiration rose at a higher rate of 13 mm/decade, resulting in a decline in water availability of 5.5 mm/decade. Spatially, approximately 30.17% of the area exhibited a significant downward trend in water availability, while 65.65% remained relatively stable. Evapotranspiration is the dominant factor leading to the decrease in water availability, with a contribution rate of 63.41%. The increase in evapotranspiration was primarily driven by temperature (32.53% contribution) and the saturation vapor pressure deficit (24.72% contribution). The decline in water availability may further exacerbate drought risks in arid and semiarid regions. The research results can provide a scientific basis for developing water resource management strategies and ecological restoration strategies under environmental change.