Urban Heat Islands and Land-Use Patterns in Zagreb: A Composite Analysis Using Remote Sensing and Spatial Statistics

Abstract

Urban heat islands (UHIs) present a growing environmental issue in swiftly urbanizing regions, where impermeable surfaces and a lack of vegetation increase local temperatures. This research analyzes the spatial distribution of urban heat islands in Zagreb, Croatia, utilizing remote sensing data, urban planning metrics, and spatial-statistical analysis. Composite rasters of land surface temperature (LST) and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) were generated from four cloud-free Landsat 9 images obtained in the summer of 2024. The data were consolidated into regulatory planning units through zonal statistics, facilitating the evaluation of the impact of built-up density and designated green space on surface temperatures. A composite UHI index was developed by combining normalized land surface temperature (LST) and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) measurements, while spatial clustering was examined with Local Moran’s I and Getis-Ord Gi*. The results validate spatial patterns of heat intensity, with high temperatures centered in densely built residential areas. This research addresses the gap in past UHI studies by providing a reproducible approach for detecting thermal stress zones, linking satellite data with spatial planning variables. The results support the development of localized climate adaptation methods and highlight the importance of integrating green infrastructure into urban planning methodologies.