Demand forecasting for crude palm oil (CPO) using the time series method

Abstract

Palm oil is one of the most consumed and produced oils in the world. It can be used as a raw material for various products such as food, cosmetics, as well as a source of biofuel and biodiesel. One of the companies that produces Crude Palm Oil (CPO) is company X. A fundamental mistake that often occurs in making sales decisions for CPO products is inaccuracy in providing sales predictions. So the aim of this study was to evaluate the demand forecasting made by Company X using the Time Series method. Based on the company's historical data from January 2013 to December 2017, CPO sales forecasting for 2018 is carried out using the decomposition method, moving average, exponential smoothing, and trend analysis as part of the Time Series method. The forecasting results showed that the highest sales is in May 2018 amounting to 2,105,952 kg and the lowest forecasting in December 2018 about 766,667 kg.