Mobile source CO 2 mitigation through smart growth development and vehicle fleet hybridization

Abstract

This paper presents the results of a study on the effectiveness of smart growth development patterns and vehicle fleet hybridization in reducing mobile source emissions of carbon dioxide (CO 2) across 11 major metropolitan regions of the Midwestern U.S. over a 50-year period. Through the integration of a vehicle travel activity modeling framework developed by researchers at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory with small area population projections, we model mobile source emissions of CO 2 associated with alternative land development and technology change scenarios between 2000 and 2050. Our findings suggest that under an aggressive smart growth scenario, growth in emissions expected to occur under a business as usual scenario is reduced by 34%, while the full dissemination of hybrid-electric vehicles throughout the light vehicle fleet is found to offset the expected growth in emissions by 97%. Our results further suggest that high levels of urban densification could achieve reductions in 2050 CO 2 emissions equivalent to those attainable through the full dissemination of hybrid-electric vehicle technologies. © 2009 American Chemical Society.