Marginalization, not mainstreaming: Explaining the failure of fringe parties in Poland

Abstract

While the Polish party system has shown signs of consolidation and stabilization in recent years, it is still susceptible to the emergence of new parties that seek to exploit untended ideological niches. However, these fringe parties consistently fail to establish themselves as permanent inhabitants of these niches or to consolidate their initial electoral gains by transforming themselves into mainstream parties. In this article, we use data from the Polish National Election Study to analyse voting patterns over the period 2001–2015 in an attempt to explain fringe party failure. We conclude that fringe parties in Poland fail for two reasons: they are electorally ‘squeezed’ by mainstream parties that are capable of attracting the natural constituencies of fringe parties, while those natural constituencies also have a greater propensity to abstain from participating in elections.