On RCM-based projections of change in southern African summer climate

Abstract

Two regional climate models (RCMs) are used to downscale 10 years of control and 10 years of future (2070-2079) southern African climate, as simulated by the HadAM3 general circulation model forced with the A2 SRES emissions scenario. Changes in early and late summer season total rainfall, rain days and average surface temperature are presented for the projected future climate. The two RCMs indicate broadly consistent changes over the region as a whole. However, time- and location-dependent differences are apparent, especially in the simulated magnitude of change, due to different representations of each model's internal physics and local hydrological cycle. Copyright 2005 by the American Geophysical Union.