Violence, Insecurity and Turnout in Mexico

Abstract

This article looks at the consequences of violence and insecurity on democracy through an analysis of electoral participation in presidential elections in Mexico. The aim is to discover whether violence and insecurity influence whether citizens vote or abstain. Several hypotheses are put forward stating that both objective and subjective indicators of security affect intention to vote. In order to test them, a quantitative methodology and the 2019 Americas Barometer are used. After empirically testing the hypotheses, it is found that the objective indicator, occurrence of homicides in the neighbourhood, does influence the decision to vote or to abstain in future presidential elections. This shows that voting on security issues is sociotropic in nature.