Modeling the effect of mechanization level index on crop yield approaching system dynamics methodology

Abstract

A system dynamics methodology used for estimating effects of mechanization level index on the mean yield of farm crop products, considering the main input and output of farming crops' production system of Iran. A collection of constant parameters, logical relations and statistically estimated functions which were effective in mechanized farm crops' production of Iran, defined as an autonomous system and time span for modeling is defined a period 70-year viz. 1981 up to 2051. Running the established model by simulation software, resulted in key parameters, needed for creating "The production function" as mean yield of farm crop products depended to mechanization level index. After testing validity of the created model, analyzing estimated production function resulted in recognizing three economic production regions. The first economic production region continued from 1.342 Kw/ha to 2.013 Kw/ha; The second production region started at 2.013 Kw/ha and ended at 2.386 Kw/ha, and finally the third production region started from 2.386 Kw/ha for mechanization level Index, while the maximum profitable point for farm crops production appeared at 2.218 Kw/ha in simulation procedure. All the analysis based on the available statistics for agricultural sector of Iran, since 1981 up to the recent time.