Predicting current and future distribution pattern of Berberis lycium Royle concerning climate change using an ensemble modelling approach

Abstract

To evaluate the potential impact of climatic variabilities on the habitat ranges of species in the context of changing climatic conditions, species distribution modelling is considered a significant approach. The objective of the present study is to explore the potential distribution of Berberis lycium Royle under current and future climatic scenarios using the BIOMOD (Biodiversity Modelling) ensemble model. The results indicate that bio-1, i.e., Annual Mean Temperature plays a substantial role in regulating the distribution of this medicinally important species. In the present study, two strategies were used to combine predictions from individual model into an ensemble (committee average and weighted mean), which gave contradicting results of the final ensemble models. In terms of committee average, the species is anticipated to lose its suitable habitats with respect to climate change but in terms of weighted mean, it is shown to gain its suitable habitats in future climatic scenarios. Thus, the present study recommends application of multiple strategies for preparing the final ensemble model to predict all possible outcomes. Additionally, in case of habitat loss coupled with other anthropogenic pressures, the survival of the target species may become difficult. Therefore, there is an urgent need to formulate policies and strategies for the conservation and management of this valuable plant species.