Modeling and Forecasting the Domestic Retail Price of Teff in Ethiopia

Abstract

One of the most popular main food crops grown by the majority of Ethiopians is teff (Eragrostis teff). More than 90% of the teff consumed worldwide is grown in Ethiopia. Despite having the highest output volume, this Ethiopian cereal crop has the highest price. The major goal of this study was to estimate and predict the domestic retail price of teff in Ethiopia. The Central Statistical Agency (CSA) of Ethiopia provided the data. The average monthly domestic retail price of teff per kilogram (in birr) in Ethiopia from January 1996 to June 2023 served as the study's source of data. The data are analyzed using both descriptive and inferential statistical methods. The Statistical Packages for Social Science (SPSS Version 20.0) and R statistical tools were used to conduct the analysis. Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model was used for modeling the average monthly domestic retail price data of teff for 27 years and forecasting for the next five years. The final model chosen, using the AIC and BIC selection criteria, was SARIMA (2, 1, 4) × (0, 0, 2)12, which had the minimum Mean Absolute Error (MAE) and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE). The domestic retail price of teff in Ethiopia is therefore predicted to increase relatively rapidly over the next five years, with seasonal variation. The results of this study may contribute further to the policy discussion on lowering teff prices domestically and enhancing food security. Additionally, the study is very important for managing price instability for producers, consumers, wholesalers, and national agricultural pricing policy reforms. This study also provides evidence for government policymakers on the issue of Ethiopia's exorbitant cost of living and price inflation.