Un análisis de series de tiempo mediante modelos SARIMAX para la proyección de demanda de carga en el puerto del Callao

Abstract

The main objective of this article is to estimate and provide forecast models in order to predict cargo throughput for the Port of Callao from 2019 to 2023. These results could serve to make a prospective analysis, improve the decisions of investment and determine port rates. For this purpose, SARIMAX time series models are used with the inclusion of exogenous inputs which are representative of the cargo throughput of the three terminals of the Port of Callao: APMTC, DPWC and TC. The forecast results indicate that by the year 2023 a total of 17 million MT’s and 3.4 million TEU’s will be reached, activating investment triggers for APMTC and DPWC.