A novel methodological approach for land subsidence prediction through data assimilation techniques

Abstract

Anthropogenic land subsidence can be evaluated and predicted by numerical models, which are often built over deterministic analyses. However, uncertainties and approximations are present, as in any other modeling activity of real-world phenomena. This study aims at combining data assimilation techniques with a physically-based numerical model of anthropogenic land subsidence in a novel and comprehensive workflow, to overcome the main limitations concerning the way traditional deterministic analyses use the available measurements. The proposed methodology allows to reduce uncertainties affecting the model, identify the most appropriate rock constitutive behavior and characterize the most significant governing geomechanical parameters. The proposed methodological approach has been applied in a synthetic test case representative of the Upper Adriatic basin, Italy. The integration of data assimilation techniques into geomechanical modeling appears to be a useful and effective tool for a more reliable study of anthropogenic land subsidence.