The impact of climate change on the outdoor tourism with a focus on the outdoor tourism climate index (OTCI) in Hormozgan province, Iran

Abstract

The aim of this study was to investigate the effects of climate change on the climate condition of outdoor tourists in Hormozgan province, Iran, through Outdoor Tourism Climate Index (OTCI). For this purpose, the data pertaining to 7 weather stations as well as 2 global climate models (GCMs) under 2.6 and 8.5 Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) were applied. GCMs were statistically downscaled by the change factor (CF) approach. The findings illuminated that, based on OTCI, December, January, February, and March were regarded as the optimal months for the outdoor tourism activities. Nevertheless, for the concerned months, the range of OTCI score in twenty-first century is changing from 2 to − 12 regarding the base period (1980–2010). Mostly, the changes in OTCI score is predicted to occur at March, April, May, October, and November, whereas June would record the least. Moreover, Hajiabad and Kish stations in the North and South of the under-study area would encounter the most and least changes, respectively, in the future.