Urban expansion drivers and land use scenario simulation in Nanning, China, using the PLUS model

Abstract

With environmental changes and rapid urbanization, Chinese cities face serious challenges such as disrupted water cycles, frequent flooding, and ecological imbalances. Therefore, China launched the Sponge City initiative in 2013, which evolved into a comprehensive, multiobjective urban management system by 2020. This study focuses on Nanning City, using multisource data from 1990 to 2020 and the Patch-generating Land Use Simulation model to examine land-use changes, driving forces, and future scenarios. Results show that: (1) Construction land increased 5.62 times, spreading from the Chaoyang Creek Basin to flat areas in the east and southeast; (2) Cultivated land and woodland contributed 89.13% and 7.65%, respectively, as main sources; (3) Digital Elevation Model, slope, and transportation were key drivers; and (4) Under ecological protection, woodland and grassland expanded, showing that policy can effectively limit urban growth. This study builds a historical–mechanism–scenario framework to support urban planning and ecological resilience in Nanning.