Naval power, endogeneity, and long-distance disputes

Abstract

Does an increase in naval power increase the likelihood of interstate disputes? While volumes have been written on the importance of naval power, we are left with little more than intuition and anecdotal evidence to provide potential answers to this question. Endogeneity issues in particular make it difficult to untangle the links between developing naval power and interstate conflict. Here I present a new instrument for naval power. Utilizing a new dataset of naval power and employing an instrumental variable analysis, I present one of the first large cross-national studies showing a significant link between naval power and a specific type of interstate conflict-non-contiguous disputes. The findings have implications for the future actions of states whose naval strength is growing.