Spatiotemporal risk assessment and COVID-19 trend estimation in a federative unit in northeastern Brazil

Abstract

Background: Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has spread worldwide, causing a high burden of morbidity and mortality, and has affected the various health service systems in the world, demanding disease monitoring and control strategies. The objective of this study was to identify risk areas using spatiotemporal models and determine the COVID-19 time trend in a federative unit of northeastern Brazil. Methods: An ecological study using spatial analysis techniques and time series was carried out in the state of Maranhão, Brazil. All new cases of COVID-19 registered in the state from March 2020 to August 2021 were included. Incidence rates were calculated and spatially distributed by area, while the spatiotemporal risk territories were identified using scan statistics. The COVID-19 time trend was determined using Prais–Winsten regressions. Results: Four spatiotemporal clusters with high relative risks for the disease were identified in seven health regions located in the southwest/northwest, north and east of Maranhão. The COVID-19 time trend was stable during the analysed period, with higher rates in the regions of Santa Inês in the first and second waves and Balsas in the second wave. Conclusions: The heterogeneously distributed spatiotemporal risk areas and the stable COVID-19 time trend can assist in the management of health systems and services, facilitating the planning and implementation of actions toward the mitigation, surveillance and control of the disease.