Simulation of changes in land-use/land cover on wetlands through CA-Markov model

Abstract

Land use land cover modeling is extremely important to land planners, since it allows creating projects and scenarios with possible future threats to ecosystems. Thus, the aim of the present study was to apply the CA-Marvok model to simulate the land use and land cover for the year 2030 in the environmental protection area of the Banhado Grande (EPABG), Brazil. Thus, two images Landsat 5 TM and 8 OLI from 2007 and 2017 were classified. The CA-Markov model was applied through the Land Change Modeler (LCM) tool of the TerrSet software. The results show that the soybean class was the one that most grew between 2007 and 2017, going from 5,891 to 33,844 ha. The simulation shows that 45,375 ha of soybeans will be cultivated at EPABG by 2030, replacing mainly floodplain areas and wetlands. In view of the above, it is concluded that the simulation of land use land cover for 2030 showed that soybean cultivated area will correspond to approximately 33% of land use and land cover in EPABG. Therefore, it is recommended to create the EPABG management plan focused on the maintenance of the biodiversity and wetlands of the EPABG.