The effect of exposure to pre-election polls in the behavior of voters in the regional elections in Andalusia in 2018

Abstract

Pre-election polls have become a tool of political communication for political parties and the media. This study has tried to study the effect of exposure to polls on the electoral behavior of voters for the 2018 Andalusian regional elections. The proliferation of polls published by the media offered overly optimistic expectations for the Socialist Party, and a scenario of high competitiveness between conservative parties (the Popular Party, the liberal party Ciudadanos and the right wing populist party Vox) that affected the electoral preferences of voters. Through a statistical model in two phases, we have verified how mobilization took place in the socialist electorate given the probability of a solid majority, and opting conservative voters to make an ideological vote (Vox) against a strategic vote (Popular Party), due to a lack of alternative majorities to the socialist government of Susana Diaz.