Predation of boreal owl nests by pine martens in the boreal forest does not vary as predicted by the alternative prey hypothesis

Abstract

The alternative prey hypothesis (APH) states that temporally synchronous population fluctuations of microtine rodents and other small herbivores are caused by generalist predators that show functional and numerical responses to the abundance of microtines. This would lead to an increased predation of alternative prey in the low phase of the microtine population fluctuations. One candidate for such a predator is the tree-climbing pine marten (Martes martes), which includes bird eggs in its diet, among them eggs of the cavity-nesting boreal owl (Aegolius funereus). I used long-term data to test whether pine marten predation of boreal owl eggs in nest boxes varied as predicted by the APH. The probability of predation of owl nests situated < 45 km from a site where microtines were trapped in spring during four decades increased with microtine trapping index, which is opposite to the prediction from the APH. As the data set was limited to one nest per box, I extended it spatially and temporally using the clutch size of each boreal owl nest as a proxy for the actual microtine abundance at the site. The probability of nest predation increased with clutch size. However, the effects of microtine index and owl clutch size became non-significant when I controlled for habitat, and in particular cavity age, which had an overriding effect. The increase in predation probability with cavity age suggests that the long-term spatial memory of pine marten is an important factor in the pattern of its nest predation in tree cavities.