A Data-constrained Model for Coronal Mass Ejections Using the Graduated Cylindrical Shell Method

Abstract

Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are major drivers of extreme space weather conditions, as this is a matter of serious concern for our modern technologically dependent society. The development of numerical approaches that would simulate CME generation and propagation through the interplanetary space is an important step toward our capability to predict CME arrival times at Earth and their geoeffectiveness. In this paper, we utilize a data-constrained Gibson–Low (GL) flux rope model to generate CMEs. We derive the geometry of the initial GL flux rope using the graduated cylindrical shell method. This method uses multiple viewpoints from STEREO A and B Cor1/Cor2, and Solar and Heliospheric Observatory ( SOHO )/LASCO C2/C3 coronagraphs to determine the size and orientation of a CME flux rope as it starts to erupt from the Sun. A flux rope generated in this way is inserted into a quasi-steady global magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) background solar wind flow driven by Solar Dynamics Observatory /Helioseismic and Magnetic Imager line-of-sight magnetogram data, and erupts immediately. Numerical results obtained with the Multi-Scale Fluid-Kinetic Simulation Suite (MS-FLUKSS) code are compared with STEREO and SOHO /LASCO coronagraph observations, in particular in terms of the CME speed, acceleration, and magnetic field structure.