Election Denial, Voter Confidence, and Political Behavior in the 2021 Georgia Senate Runoff Elections

Abstract

We analyze AP VoteCast survey data to determine if opinions toward the 2020 presidential election shaped participation and vote choice in the 2021 Georgia Senate runoff contests. Specifically, we estimate the impact of election denial and voter confidence on self-reported participation and voter preferences in the 2021 Georgia Senate runoffs. Election denial dampened the likelihood of voting in the 2021 Georgia Senate runoffs, and particularly among respondents aligned with President Trump. With respect to vote choice in these contests, election denial sided more with Republican preferences, whereas voter confidence increased Democratic support. This research highlights how opinions toward the 2020 presidential election registered notable effects on political behavior in the ensuing Georgia Senate runoffs, which decided partisan control of Congress’ upper chamber.